President Donald Trump and his economic team often respond to concerns about the affordability crisis by touting how much cheaper gasoline is than under his predecessor.
For the vast majority of 2025,this was a legitimate bragging point for the White House.
Until now.
For the first time since the start of Trump’s second term,the discount between this year’s prices and last year’s has effectively disappeared.
The national average for regular gas stood at$3.055 on Tuesday,almost exactly the same as$3.056 a year ago under former President Joe Biden,according to AAA.
In fact,Tuesday breaks an eight-day streak where the national average was up on a year-over-year basis,according to AAA data shared with CNN.
It’s a big shift from earlier this year,when gas was 30,40 and even 50 cents cheaper than the same point in 2024.
Although prices at the pump are still relatively low and far from their historic peak in 2022,this trend contradicts a key Trump talking point and undermines one of his strongest arguments on affordability.
During a major economic policy speech in Miami on November 6,Trump claimed,“Gasoline prices have plummeted to the lowest in two decades.”
In reality,gas prices were averaging$3.08 a gallon—nowhere near a multi-decade low and just a few pennies cheaper than under Biden the year before.
During an interview on Fox News that aired last Friday,Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent argued,“Oil and gasoline prices are down substantially under President Trump—and that is really the key to affordability.”
Yet gas prices were three cents higher on a year-over-year basis that day.
Affordability disconnect
Americans say there is a disconnect between Trump’s rhetoric on prices and the reality they are experiencing.
According to a CBS News poll,60%of Americans say Trump makes things sound better than they really are when it comes to prices and inflation.
Just 27%say Trump makes thing sound about as they really are,while 13%say he makes them sound worse.
It’s one thing to embellish unclear or hard-to-quantify numbers like how many trillions of dollars of foreign investment US officials have secured.It’s another matter altogether to tell people groceries are getting cheaper,or prices are plunging at the gas pump,when neither is true.
Gas prices are a highly visible way that many Americans view the cost of living.The spike to$5 per gallon after Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022 caused an uproar and a political nightmare for the Biden administration.
Where gas is cheaper than last year
Thankfully,drivers in some states are saving a bit on gas prices relative to last year going into the driving-heavy Thanksgiving weekend..
Gas prices are significantly cheaper year-over-year in Colorado(24 cents),Wyoming(19 cents),Hawaii(12 cents),Wisconsin(12 cents),Maryland(9 cents)and North Dakota(9 cents),according to AAA.
However,average gas prices are also up significantly in some states,including Oregon(27 cents),Alaska(26 cents),Washington(20 cents),California(16 cents),Idaho(16 cents),Arizona(14 cents),Michigan(9 cents)and Nevada(9 cents).
None of this is to say gas is expensive under Trump.It’s not.
In fact,GasBuddy projects the average national price for gas on Thanksgiving will be is$3.02—tied for the lowest Thanksgiving price since the pandemic sent prices crashing in 2020.But the year it’s tied with is 2024,so it’s not exactly something for the Trump administration to boast about.
“We’re basically in the same neighborhood as last year.It’s virtually the same price,”said Patrick De Haan,head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy.“Policy hasn’t really done anything.”
But when adjusted for inflation,gas prices haven’t been this cheap on Thanksgiving Day since 2016,excluding Covid,according to GasBuddy.
“People don’t feel as bad about filling up their tank because they are making more money,”said De Haan.
JPMorgan:Brent crude can dip into the$30s a barrel
Some on Wall Street are betting that even cheaper prices are on the way in 2026.
Oil supply is projected to increase faster than demand next year.
Unless OPEC steps in to intervene,Brent crude oil will likely drop into the low$50s per barrel by the fourth quarter of next year and close 2026 in the$40s,commodity strategists at JPMorgan Chase wrote in a research report published Monday.
JPMorgan said the“outlook worsens”in 2027,with a mounting surplus driving Brent to an average of just$42 a barrel and sinking into the$30s by the end of that year.
The projected supply glut is so severe that JPMorgan said producers will“almost certainly”need to make major adjustments by cutting output.
Tom Kloza,a veteran oil market analyst now at Gulf Oil,agrees that the outlook is favorable for gas prices next year.
“It’s an easy road in 2026.Everything points to a surplus of crude,”Kloza said.“There are a lot of things Trump faces challenges on.This is not one of them.It may not be a lay-up,but it’s probably a free throw.”
