GreenergyDaily
Jan. 4, 2026
Venezuela is unlikely to see any meaningful boost to crude output for years even if U.S. oil majors do invest the billions of dollars in the country that President Donald Trump promised just hours following Nicolás Maduro's capture by U.S. forces.
The South American country may have the world's largest estimated oil reserves, but output has plummeted over the past decades amid mismanagement and a lack of investment from foreign firms after Venezuela nationalized oil operations in the 2000s that included the assets of Exxon Mobil and ConocoPhillips.
Any companies that might want to invest there would need to deal with security concerns, dilapidated infrastructure, questions about the legality of the U.S. operation to snatch Maduro and the potential for long-term political instability, analysts told Reuters.
American firms won't return until they know for sure they will be paid and will have at least a minimal amount of security, said Mark Christian, director of business development at CHRIS Well Consulting. He also said the companies would not go back until sanctions against the country are removed.
Venezuela would also have to reform its laws to allow for larger investment by foreign oil companies.
Venezuela nationalized the industry in the 1970s, and in the 2000s ordered a forced migration to joint ventures controlled by its state oil company, PDVSA. Most companies negotiated exits and migrated, including Chevron, while a handful of others did not reach deals and filed for arbitration.
"I f Trump et al can produce a peaceful transition with little resistance, then in five to seven years there is a significant oil-production ramp up as infrastructure is repaired and investments get sorted out," Thomas O'Donnell, an energy and geopolitical strategist, told Reuters, adding that heavy crude produced in the country works well with U.S. Gulf Coast refineries and can also be blended with lighter oil produced from fracking.
But that would depend on everything going right, and there's a lot that could go wrong.
"A botched political transition that has a feeling of U.S. dominance can lead to years of resistance," O'Donnell said, noting armed groups of citizens and guerrilla groups that operate in the country.
Venezuela - a founding member of OPEC with Iran, Iraq, Kuwait and Saudi Arabia - produced as much as 3.5 million barrels per day in the 1970s, which at the time represented over 7% of global oil output. Production fell below 2 million bpd during the 2010s and averaged around 1.1 million bpd last year, or just 1% of global production.
